Thoughts on iPhone
The iPhone form factor isn’t new. It’s much like the original Pocket PC based XDA which later evolved into variants that included a keyboard. I personally prefer to use a touch screen rather than keyboard and currently use a M600i in that mode. However, I know I am in the minority as I have been to many mobile conferences where user research has shown that people hate getting sticky finger prints and face perspiration on their screens. Furthermore, people also prefer the tactile feedback provided by hardware keyboards.
The device also has limitations. Also, I am not sure people will give up their hard drive based iPOD for a device with only 4Gb or 8Gb storage. Hence in some respects the iPhone is a backward step technically for some people compared to existing devices.
If the user experience is as great as the hype then it’s this that will be revolutionary and attract buyers. Most phones are much the same these days due to network operator guidelines that restrict innovation. The iPhone ignores these guidelines. Steve Jobs is quoted as saying…
"A lot of times, to be honest, there’s some hubris, where they think they know better," Jobs says. "They dictate what’s on the phone. That just wouldn’t work for us…"
This has left Apple free to implement features in a way it considers to be ‘best of class’. Time will tell if this alienates network operators or makes them more open to change.
I don’t see the iPhone becoming revolutionary in terms of market share - neither does Apple if they only expect 1% market share in 2008. The iPhone will just fragment the already fragmented market space. The iPhone doesn’t increase development fragmentation as Michael Gartenberg of Jupiter Research reports that it’s not extensible by 3rd parties.