Analyst’s Reports and Forecasts
Michael Mace has an interesting post on his blog on how to read tech analysts’ shipment reports and forecasts. He makes a distinction between forecasts and shipment reports and says…
"I think tech industry forecasts are worthless. Completely worthless."
"Quarterly numbers are a lot more accurate than the forecasts"
Nevertheless, Michael goes on to be cynical about how the quarterly numbers are actually compiled.
As with all statistics (and blogs!), it’s ‘reader beware’. Some analysts are funded by the phone OEMs themselves - sometimes just to get an overview of the market, other times to put out a ‘favourable’ report.
As Michael says, "can you reliably predict the future?". The answer is ‘no’. However, I wouldn’t go as far to say forecasts are "Completely worthless". For me, they often bring up new issues to be considered.